Tricks, methods and strategies to make money with sports betting proliferate on the Internet, and in the mouths of many fans. Many of them even go so far as to propose systems to earn money in a continuous and systematic way, drawing fans who have just arrived in the world an idyllic paradise of unlimited profits bayar77 daftar.
We are sorry to say that this ideal world does not exist.
Beating a betting house in the long term is an arduous and difficult task, in which the majority of bettors are doomed to fail. The individual bettor faces companies with enormous budgets dedicated to research and technology. There is no news that moves in the world of sports that they do not know, nor data or statistics that do not appear on their powerful information servers before it reaches the public. Their technological level reaches the point that goals scored live are usually updated on their website before even before the television announcer sings them. The odds they offer are calculated with a powerful mathematical and probabilistic arsenal behind them, to which is added the spread or bookmaker’s margin. Bettors not only face statistics, but participate in a game that is not zero-sum, but rather unfavorable odds on average. The profits that betting houses make at the end of the year come precisely from the losses of the great mass of bettors. And these benefits are certainly considerable.
However, there is a minority of individual bettors who make money continuously and sustainably over time. It even allows them to make a living from their bets and dedicate themselves to it professionally.
How is it possible?
There are three basic loopholes through which we can be part of that minority that makes money through betting. Isn’t this contradictory to what was stated above? No. Let no one be fooled, the betting house cannot be defeated systematically and in the long term. But to the rest of the bettors, yes. These three methods are simple and known by true professionals, who use them successfully in their operations. And they are the only ones with which we can establish entry and exit strategies for our profitable long-term bets.
Let’s see, then, the three ways to ally ourselves with the betting houses and obtain benefits thanks to it. And as a bonus, we will give you an additional tip to start betting directly with profits.
Method 1: Directional Betting
Directional betting is simply betting on an outcome. Behind it lies the basic mechanism of betting: we put money in favor of a certain team, if I win I get it multiplied by the odds, if not, I lose it. We play, therefore, simply against the probability of the result, something that the bookmakers handle perfectly.
Does it make economic sense to bet this way?
Yes, in a single situation: when the implied probability of the odds offered by the bookmaker is lower than the real probability for the result to happen. In this case, the bet is said to have value.
With an example, let’s imagine a soccer match: Real Sociedad – Real Betis Balompié. Let’s assume that the odds for Real Sociedad’s victory are 2. This means that the probability that the bookmaker assigns to this result is 50%. Therefore, it only makes sense to bet if the real probability of Real beating Betis is greater than 50%.
This is not a common situation, quite the opposite. As we explained previously, betting houses have enormous human and technical resources, so they handle statistics and probability better than anyone. However, it does sometimes happen that the betting house is forced to move the odds outside of what the statistics indicate, and this situation can be created precisely by erroneous estimates of the mass of bettors. If a large part of the money is concentrated in certain results, it is very common for the betting house to modify the odds of the complementary results to make them more attractive to other bettors and balance their risk, thus providing an opportunity for long-term profit. .
Again with our example, if the majority of the betting money goes towards draws or wins for Betis, our bookmaker may choose to offer odds of 2.2 or 2.4 which assume implied probabilities of 45% and 42% respectively. With these odds and a real probability of 50% it makes all the sense in the world to bet on Real Sociedad. The bet, therefore, offers value to the bettor, in English terms, its expected value or expected value is positive. To evaluate them, we have developed this method for analyzing the value of sports betting.
With this mechanism, the individual bettor helps the bookmaker rebalance the market, and effectively positions himself against other bettors.
Method 2: Betting Arbitrage
In investment terms, the word arbitrage is used when a certain profit can be obtained in situations where two or more markets meet. out of balance with each other. In betting, as a large market where probabilities of events are bought and sold, it is possible – and very profitable – to apply this concept. Who wouldn’t be delighted to find a sure profit opportunity? To do this, we simply must find a match where the opposite results give us odds whose sum of probabilities is less than 100%. Or in other words, where the net spread is negative.
Wait a moment. If we had agreed that the spread was the betting house’s margin… no bookmaker will offer odds for a match where you will surely lose!
Indeed, no. The key is to compare the odds of various betting houses. No betting house will give us their margin, but it may be possible that due to market dynamics, two betting houses are forced to adjust their odds so that a bettor takes a position in one betting house, and the opposite in another. , so that regardless of the result, a benefit can be obtained.
With our football example: if a betting house offers odds 2 for Real Sociedad’s victory, and another bookmaker offers odds 2.4 for Real Sociedad’s draw or defeat, investing 100 euros in the first betting house and 83 in the second , we will obtain a SAFE profit of 17 euros, regardless of the result:
If Real Sociedad wins: we have invested 183 euros, the prize is 100 x 2 = 200 euros, we obtain a profit of 17 euros
If Real Sociedad draws or loses: invested: 183 euros, prize = 83 x 2.4 = 200 euros, profit 17 euros
Let us observe that the probabilities of the odds handled are 50% and 42%, whose sum is 92%.
Again, this situation will occur in cases where two betting houses have two opposite results unbalanced. With this double operation we are helping them balance their positions by placing ourselves against the majority of bettors.
Method 3: The Trading Sports
The concept of sports trading also comes from the stock market. It consists, in the purest style of stock market speculation, in negotiating with the temporal evolution of a party’s quotas. As we have commented before, betting houses dynamically move their odds as the bets are settled to ensure that they compensate each other, and they obtain their profit from the a spread.
The most obvious situation of this evolution of the odds is during live matches. Let’s take our clash between Real Sociedad and Betis as an example again. Let’s imagine that the match starts with a 0-0 tie, it is very tied, and we believe that it is very likely that it will end like this. We place a bet on a tie, let’s say with odds 3. After 20 minutes, if the score has not moved, the odds will have been reduced to, let’s say, 2.4, since the probability of the match ending in a tie will have increased. If now the match opens and we estimate that either of the two teams can score, we can choose to close our position and win the difference in odds, in two possible ways
betting simultaneously on the two complementary results (it should be ensured that the margin implicit in these other odds allows it)
selling our tie position, or in stock market terms, putting ourselves short the tie
This second option is certainly cleaner, but the only bookmaker with a true market that allows us to be the brokers offering the bets is Betfair , making it the ideal operator for trading exchange bets. We have carried out a complete analysis of the Betfair betting house, which you can consult in the previous link.
In conclusion
All of these methods are easy to list, but not easy to execute. They require enormous effort and dedication to launch them successfully. In any case, developing the entry and exit strategy in betting is not the only essential requirement to win real money. The reduction of margins or optimization of spreads, and the proper management of our banking or to put it in terms of investment, the money management of the bets are also essential to grow our portfolio and optimize the profit in the bets. And all this is of no use without the appropriate psychological control of our emotions.